Posted by Joshua Holland at 5:10 pm
Some people are worried about a backlash resulting from the Prop 8 ruling, and that’s probably a valid concern. But I just want to touch briefly on an over-arching narrative coming from those who oppose the decision: that it goes against the will of the people.
The truth is that a majority of Californians were opposed to Prop 8 when it passed, and a majority of Californians opposed it when it was ruled un-Constitutional this week. Not huge majorities, but majorities nonetheless.
Here are the results of a survey conducted by The Field Poll last month (PDF):
The results show that by a 51% to 42% margin, the overall California electorate supports allowing same-sex couples to marry and having regular marriage laws apply to them.
Seven percent had no opinion.
When given three choices: no rights, “civil unions” or full marriage equality, support for the latter fell to 44 percent, but that still led civil unions, which are the preference of 34 percent of the electorate. How many Californians don’t want gays and lesbians to have the right to enter into legal unions at all? Just 19 percent — fewer than 1 in 5.
What about back in 2008, when Prop 8 passed?
Approve/disapprove trend of California opinion about allowing same-
sex couples to marry and having regular marriage laws apply to them
(among registered voters)Approve: 51% Disapprove: 42 Not sure: 7%
Note that the numbers are exactly the same. In 2009, support for marriage equality dipped slightly, to 49/ 44, with that same out-to-lunch 7 percent who just don’t know. I would imagine that drop had something to do with the dishonest, multi-million dollar campaign by Prop 8 proponents connecting the issue to California schoolchildren.
So, what’s the deal? These are the results of a series of polls of registered voters. The referendum was passed with a majority of voters who actually went to the polls, and voters skew more conservative than the electorate as a whole.
Here’s more detail:
Mark DiCamillo of the Field Poll explains that both the 2008 and 2010 surveys polled a random sample of ALL registered voters. But that’s not who votes. The electorate, i.e. who actually casts a ballot, is a very different pool of people. So … the electorate in 2008 was a bit more conservative than the overall pool of registered voters. That’s typically the case, since the people most likely to vote are older … and the older you are the more likely you are to oppose gay marriage. B
Those who don’t vote can’t whine about the results, but that doesn’t change the fact that a majority of the California electorate favors full marriage equality, and has consistently favored it since 2008.
PS: To be clear, I don’t think this is a terribly relevant point because in the United States, we don’t put fundamental rights to a vote. That’s just what this is about: equal protection under the law.